Thursday, October 21, 2010

 

Welcome

I see Dartmouth was kind enough to link to this blog (again). I am currently in the midst of preparing for the Midterm Election conference and have been caught a little unprepared for linkage.
In case you're wondering what I am currently projecting for the midterm elections, I have the following projection in the House based solely off projections of the national house vote: Republicans will gain 57.5 seats +/- 7.5. If Republicans pick up exactly 57.5 (57 or 58) seats, they will hold 235.5 (235 or 236) seats in the 112th Congress. Democrats would control 199.5 (199 or 200) seats and be forced back into minority status. This projection has not changed since my first estimate all the way back in February.

Of course, the House of Representatives is actually made up 435 single member districts. Specific seat estimates (e.g. will Democrat Anne Kuster or Republican Charlie Bass be the representative from the seat that represents Dartmouth in Congress) will be available by mid-afternoon. To forecast the outcome in every district, I've been working with the folks over at Stochastic Democracy. Developed in July, our in-depth model utilizes not only the projection of the national house vote, but district-by-district polls, Cook Political Report Ratings (visit their site as my friend Dave Wasserman has forgotten more about the House than I will ever know), and Cook's Partisan Voter Index to predict races.

Projections for Senatorial and Gubernatorial races will also come this afternoon. As a preview, I can tell you that Democrats should hold onto the Senate, but lose a number of seats. Republicans should pick up at least 2 (and probably 4 or more) Gubernatorial mansions, enough to control a major of Governorships nationwide.

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