Is the latest Rasmussen
poll for the Democratic Senate Primary in Pennsylvania showing Joe Sestak trailing by only 2% to Arlen Specter an "outlier"? By pretty much any person's definition, it is.
Specter leads by over 22%, and the trend lines are pretty flat (indicating a stable race). Do any other recent polls
have Sestak even close to Specter?
poll released just last week showed Specter up by 21%. Indeed as the table above shows, Rasmussen's last poll also showed a much closer race (11% Specter lead) than other polls taken around that same time (all showing a 20%+ Specter lead).
Now does that mean Rasmussen is wrong? That is not my place to say; however, I would not dismiss Rasmussen out of hand. A little dip into the polling archive reveals that a Quinnipiac
poll taken around this time for the 2004 Republican Senate Primary had then Republican Specter leading Pat Toomey by 15%. A Quinnipiac poll
taken only two weeks later had Specter up by only 5%. He would go on to win by only 2%
. So maybe it will be the other pollsters playing catchup to Rasmussen... Only time will tell.