Tuesday, April 20, 2010

 

Post in Progress: Is Crist the new Lieberman

This post is a rough outline for a post, but it is placed online as a sort of copyright. It compares Joe Lieberman's successful senate run as an independent and Charlie Crist's possible run in Florida.

Comparing a poll three weeks before Lieberman became an independent in 2006 and the last Quinnipiac poll from Florida (three weeks before deadline).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1445 and http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=940

1. Lieberman had a 20% net approval (Crist's is only +10). His approval was +3 among
Dems (only +15 for Crist), +48 among Reps (+7 for Crist), and +16 among Indies (only
+13 for Crist). In other words, Lieberman doing significantly better in his crossover
appeal and among indies. Lieberman's favorable among Reps was +43 among Reps (+7 for
Crist), +11 among Dems (+20 among Dems), and +19 among Indies (+15 among for Crist).

2. Schlesinger, like Meek, is unknown, but Schelsinger was even more unknown. Only 9%
were able to form an opinion. 24% can form an opinion about Meek, and unlike
Schlesinger, Meek's response has been overwhelmingly positive.

3. Lieberman led in the last pre-primary three poll by 24% over Lamont and was over
50%. Crist only leads by 2% over Rubio and is only at 32%. As you said, an indie's best
day is before he declares.

4. Money. MEEK HAS ALREADY RAISED $4.7 MILLION. Schelsinger raised $221,000 for the entire election.

Crist's only raised $1.1 million in the second quarter. Rubio raised $3.6 million. Although Crist currently holds a 4 million dollar edge in fundraising (and cash-on-hand), Rubio should easily be able to make that up and probably exceed Crist with the netroots and party infrastructure behind him.

Crist won't be able to boot Meek from the race, and he won't be able to outspend Rubio.

Exit poll make up in 2006. Not that many indies in Florida who are Crist's strongest group.
38 Democrats, 26 Republican, 36 independent - Connecticut
36 Democrats, 39 Republican, 25 independents - Florida

Comments:
I didn't do as much research as you.. but I, too, don't believe that Crist is going to follow in Lieberman's footsteps... and you were right on the mark when you said that an Indy's best showing is before his announcement.

I read an article the other day about how he's asking teachers to switch registration so that they could vote in the primary... lol. (He voeted SB6, a merit-pay bill.)
 
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