Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Brady will hold on in Illinois Gov
As I illustrated (oddly enough) on election night in mass, I look for numbers wherever I can get them... Silver's post http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/recount-all-but-assured-in-illinois.html (probably because it was 230 am est...) doesn't differentiate between Cook County and Chicago within Cook County. The latter of course is slightly (but significantly in this case) more Democratic (David Wasserman noted this earlier this evening)... Ergo, less Republican votes are out there.
Turns out that of the now 96 precincts to count in Cook County, some 72 are from Chicago. How do I know this? Cause as I mentioned, I soak this stuff up and know the Chicago Board of Elections publishes their own stuff http://www.chicagoelections.com/results/race_results.php?id=1236
Both Brady and Dillard are running just terribly in Chicago... and Dillard is running worse relative to Brady in the city than the county as a whole. I'm calculating that instead of getting the 12.2 votes per precinct in Cook (but outside of Chicago), Dillard's only garnering 2 votes per precinct within the city. Brady, on the other hand, is garnering about 3 1/2 votes per precinct in non-Chicago Cook, but is only getting about 7/10 of a vote per precinct within the district.
The ratio of Dillard to Brady outside of the city (but within the county) is something like 3.5 to 1... but within is only something like 2.9 to 1. Combine that with the fact that both are just getting a less total number of votes within the city proper, I find that Brady is more likely to lead by about 195-200 votes, not the 1, that Silver projects, when all is said and done.
Considering that I believe Illinois uses mostly optical scan (http://www.elections.state.il.us/VotingInformation/VotingEquip.aspx) , my guess based on some quick and VERY rough calculations (using the last recount I know that involved optical scan (Minnesota)), my guess is that after recanvassing (which I would assume would take place??? if not the point is even stronger) is over and everything is recounted, the difference between a 200 vote lead and a 1 vote lead would be HUGE. If the lead is, in fact, 200 votes... I estimate that Dillard probably (unless something is really funky) could probably pick up net 115-120 votes max... Combine that with the fact that most of the areas where undervotes happen (lower educated/minority neighborhoods) aren't really casting that many votes, I'd have to think that Dillard's shot at closing the deal would be VERY small.
All this is part guesswork, part math, but there it is...
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