Tuesday, December 30, 2008

 

Oh Congressman and Governor

Bobby Rush is the last politician to defeat Barack Obama in an election. For those that don't remember, Congressman Rush defeated President-Elect Obama in the 2000 Democratic Primary for Illinois' first congressional district. In that election, Rush played the role of entrenched incumbent in a district that is 65% African American. He was apart of the state machine and traditional racial politics. Somethings never change.

Today, Governor Rod B. of Illinois, a man of the state machine, decided that the only way he could save his own hide is to play to the state's machine. His decision to choose Roland Burris, who by all accounts is an honorable man, is a low point, not for the selection, but for the reasoning behind it. The Governor, ironically, brought in the race card to fill a senate seat vacated by a man who wished to defy racial politics.

And how did he bring it in? Sadly through Bobby Rush. Rush used words like "lynching" to describe those who wish to derail the appointment of an African-American. It didn't seem to cross his mind (or he chose to ignore it if it did) that the reasoning could be other than race. Of course, most, including Senate Democrats, oppose the selection out of the belief that a corrupt governor should not have the right to make the selection of a senator... especially to a senate seat he tried to sell!

It is a sad, sad day when we have a corrupt governor using a decent man like Roland Burris to try and save his hide. It is only made worse by the fact that he is doing so using racial politics and a politician that Barack Obama tried to defeat.

Monday, December 29, 2008

 

How Good is NYC Sanitation?

Cause I'm willing to bet a good 20 bucks that they will have to clear at least 1 and potentially 3 inches of snow on New Year's Eve. It will happen before the ball drop... but shouldn't shut off until at least 2pm on Wednesday.

I'm sure they are up to the task ;)

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

 

Winters: Don't bet on this one

New York City had four consecutive 40+ inch snow seasons from 2002-2006 (02-03,03-04,etc.). We started in '02 with a near miss in November and were off and running with a 6 incher in the beginning of December. We capped it off in '06 with the greatest snowstorm in Central Park's recorded history.

New York City has not had great luck since then. For the most part, everything that could go wrong has. We haven't had much to work with. A positive NAO which in tandem with the lack of a 50/50 low have not allowed any sort of consistent cold air in these parts with a storm track to take advantage of the cold air.

In that four year stretch, almost everything that could go right did. I saw storms magically come north of their projected path within the final 48 hours. I saw storms that had 4 more inches in Manhattan than Queens due to a rain/snow line situated at the Williamsburg Bridge, which allowed for Central Park to march towards 40 inches.

In the past three years, most everything has gone down in flames of terror. Storms found a way to lose instead of win. They came north at the last minute. They managed to have a warm tongue of warm air at 750-800 mb to change snow over to sleet. It just hasn't worked.

It is in times like this that we must remember this isn't the early oozes (00's) anymore. If a model has snow, it should be met not with optimism but with "what can go wrong" attitude. I don't say this because I'm pessimistic, but in order to ensure that the most accurate forecasts are delivered.

Forecaster Enten over and out.

Monday, December 15, 2008

 

Caroline Kennedy

It will not come as a surprise to those that know me that I am AGAINST Caroline Kennedy for Senate.

I have no doubt of her intelligence. What I doubt is her public policy and legislative experience. Yes, I know of her work in education, which is to be commended. But New Yorkers know little of her positions outside of education. We also have no idea if she has the ability to work with others and be pragmatic to pass legislation.

She was a powerful backer of Obama, but I fail to see how this is necessarily a plus or minus. Yes, she has the backing of Bloomberg/Klein duo, but I don't see how this helps her win an election upstate. She is known to have a good work ethic, but campaigning town to town, county to county is an entirely different ballgame. I don't know if she can hold the seat in a general election.

If Governor Paterson wants to give Caroline Kennedy a shot, he can simply fill Clinton's seat with a placeholder. That way, Kennedy will have to compete for the Democratic nomination in 2010 on par with other possible contenders. By allowing her to fill the seat for the two years before a special election, he will allow her too great an advantage in the primary.

And rest assured, if Paterson does pick her and she isn't up to par, he'll have hell to pay.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

 

Sizing up the field: New York City Democratic Primary 2009

We all have our little pet projects or in this case elections. New York City Mayoral contests are my pet projects. The ability to win in this City of New York requires a careful balancing of diverse coalitions that one does need to maintain in any other election.
35% of New York is White non-Hispanic, 25% of New Yorkers are African-American, 9% are white and Hispanic (27% identify themselves as Hispanic), 12% are Asian, and 19% identify themselves in separate cateorgies. New York is for lack of a better term a "melting pot".
With that in mind, each candidate needs the backing of at least one ethnic segment of the population to succeed. Gifford Miller's (WASP) 2005 Mayoral bid fell apart because he appealed to nobody. Anthony Weiner was able to come in second place to Jewish backing and becoming the non-Hispanic alternative to Fernando Ferrer.
In 2009, we have three declared candidates each with possible coalitions.

William Thompson, City Comptroller, is African-American and has proved himself able to win city wide elections in New York City. Described as "mild" mannered by the New York Times, Thompson will have to be able to erase any memories of the last (and only) African American to be Mayor of New York (David Dinkins). Because he has won city-wide elections in New York and proved himself to be a more than capable comptroller, I expect Thompson to be quite the formative opponent in 2009. It also doesn't hurt that he has raised nearly 5 million dollars already.

Anthony Weiner, Congressman from New York's 9th district, is Jewish and has already run a campaign for New York City Mayor. Weiner's 2005 campaign appeared from almost out of nowhere and nearly forced a runoff by almost keeping Ferrer under 40% in the Democratic Primary. He was a strong voice against on the debate over term limits. He is a formidable debater and will no doubt be able to raise funds by tapping into New York's large and wealthy Jewish population. As New York Democratic Mayoral primaries usually comes down to a White vs. Minority Candidate (Dinkins v. Koch, Messinger v. Sharpton, Green v. Ferrer, and Ferrer v. Weiner), it is quite possible that Weiner maybe the white candidate against Thompson.

Tony Avella, a City Councilman from Queen's 19th district, is Italian and looks at least at first glance like Mario Procaccino (look it up) reincarnated. Avella will be the underdog in this election and has never run a city wide race. He is against over-development, wants English store signs (not in replacement of foreign language signs, but with them in equal size as well), and believes "Department of Education's policy is discriminatory towards Christians. He believes, as many Christians do, that a Christmas tree is not representative of the religious significance of Christmas" (Avella's campaign website). Can you come up with a worse candidate that will not only not appeal to minorities, but also not appeal to Jews? I can't.

When and if other candidates declare, I hope to take a look at their potential chances as well.

Friday, December 12, 2008

 

Mets

Will win the NL east this year.... Putz and K-Rod. I never thought I would say this, but I'll take that Putz anytime!

Monday, December 01, 2008

 

Georgia Senate Runoff December 2nd

Saxby Chambliss will be reelected barring some unforeseen late surge by Democrat Jim Martin.

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