Sunday, March 30, 2008
God help us. As the Mets move from a stadium that is a disgrace to stadium architects everywhere to a stadium that is a disgrace to all of those who appreciate the history of the New York Giants Baseball Club, the Mets will fail us once again. Coming off a season where they blew a 7 game lead with 17 games to go... including 2 out of 3 in the final series to the Florida Marlins, the Mets look to repeat. I am so sick about hearing how Johan Santana is going to be the savior of the franchise. The fact is that they don't have a fifth starter.... Pedro's arm is more out of whack than this Democratic nomination fight... and more than that they got more holes in the bullpen than there are gaps than the Cable Guy script. Coming down the stretch, the Mets bullpen pitched 41.1 innings, in which they gave up 30 earned runs for a 6.54 ERA. Further, Billy Wagner's ERA was a God awful 6.75; Pedro Feliciano's, 5.68; Scott Schoeneweis's, 4.50; Joe Smith, 8.31; Jorge Sosa's, 10.80; and Guillermo Mota's, 7.50. Even Aaron Heilman's good looking 2.25 was darkened by a game where he walked to men and hit a batter. And we haven't gotten to the hitters. Catcher Brian Schneider looks to hit at around .240... Carlos Delgado would be lucky to hit 30 homers and .270... it'll probably be closer to 25 homers and .250. It would be nice if Jose Reyes didn't pop up to left field every five seconds... hopefully he can repeat his '06 season when he hit .300 with 19 home runs. Will Moises Alou actually play more than 80 games in left field? Can Angel Pagan and Brady Clark fill the void? Brady Clark is a personal favorite of mine... and let's not even touch on Ryan Church in right field... who in my opinion is on the border of being an anti-Semite... I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
I'd be happy with a wild-card birth... and even that is a stretch.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Barack Obama = Deval Patrick? Obama better hope not.
Obama and Patrick hold many similarities. They are arguably the two most powerful African-American politicians in the United States right now. They both obtained their law degrees from Harvard Law. Patrick is a national co-chair of Obama's campaign. Patrick swept into office with the same change rhetoric that is currently leading Obama to an historic victory. Obama as you remember faced charges of plagiarism (those went away) for reusing lines used by Patrick without citation (on a particular occasion).
Patrick did get elected, so why should Obama worry? Simple, Governor Patrick has found a rough time of it as Massachusetts governor. The NYT notes in an article that "Early Dazzle, Then Tough Path for a Governor." YIKES! The reason? "He blames Speaker DiMasi, a veteran of Beacon Hill who embraces old-school ways of doing business and holds far more sway than the governor over his members." DOUBLE YIKES! Isn't it the fine Senator from Illinois who proclaims that he hasn't been molded by Washington yet? Isn't he the one who proclaims that he is going to be change? Clinton has already tried to link the two, which hasn't worked, but you can be sure, she'll try some more.
The article makes a good point that we hold off judgement on Patrick. But, this is not a great sign. Further his approval rating is under 50% and just north of the disapproval at 47-45. Call me crazy, but I'm beginning to lose a little "hope".
Clinton and North Carolina
I will not budge from my belief that Senator Clinton needs to win the North Carolina primary to have a legitimate shot at wooing super delegates. Therefore, it should be disheartening news for Clinton that the recent polling out of North Carolina looks gosh darn awful for her. She trails by 15+ in the last two polls. Obama is going to carry the Black vote by an overwhelming majority (9 to 1?). Clinton needs to carry the white vote by 25+ points (Zach Blatt would have a much better breakdown of that). She is currently only leading 14 points in the latest IA poll.
About the only good news for Clinton is that the primary is over a month away.... and a lot of stuff can happen....
Because if she doesn't win NC, she will lose the nomination (unless something 1 out of a billion happens). The reason is simple. We know that Obama has for all intents and purposes locked up the pledged delegates (unless the delegates from FL and MI are seated.... which won't happen). He has pretty locked up the popular vote unless there is a re-vote for FL and MI. Thus, her only real argument for winning the nomination is that Obama base is leaving him... and is unelectable in the general election. She needs an upset in a state deemed Obama country. North Carolina is that state. Sure, there is also Oregon, but in this person's opinion it is a more uphill climb because its voters tend to be more educated and are less likely to leave Obama in droves.
I should point out like I always do that Obama would still my favorite to win the nomination even if Clinton did win NC... his chances would just stand at something like 7 to 3... instead of 9 to 1.
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