Tuesday, November 11, 2008


Alaska and Minnesota Quick Updates

In Alaska, the Begich/Stevens senate race show should begin to reach a climax tomorrow. The state and its districts will begin to count the large majority of 90,000 absentee, early, and contested votes. Past analysis by Nate Silver (see below) indicates that the past rate of early/absentee/contested ballots going to Begich is probably enough to overturn the results. Further analysis by yours truly indicates that the majority of votes are in regions that are Begich strongholds (regions that include the Anchorage and Juneau metropolitan areas).
Begich has a little over 3,000 votes to make up.... we'll see if he can do it. Tossup.

In Minnesota, the recanvassing is done. Coleman holds a 206 vote lead out of nearly 3 million votes cast. A mandatory manual recount will commence shortly and will be completed sometime by the middle of December. The undervotes of past presidential (a vote for president but not for senate on a given ballot) is around 25,000 with undervotes including presidential (undervote of both presidential and senate) is around 2,500. The large majority of these votes are in Franken counties... which makes sense considering that undervotes meant to be a vote would be cast by the elderly, low educated, and first time voters.
I consider Franken a favorite.

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