Friday, October 31, 2008
Senate and Presidential Predictions Part I
Obama: 353-406 electoral votes.... Target 375.
McCain: 132-185 electoral votes.. Target 163
Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota, and Montana.
My belief is that Obama will win the first two, but lose the latter four.
Democrats: 58-60, gain of 7 to 9
Republican: 40-42, loss of 7 to 9
Democrats will pick up Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, Alaska, and North Carolina.
Toss up states: Minnesota and Georgia
Minnesota- Three way race between incumbent Norm Coleman (R) and challengers Al Franken (D) and Dean Barkley (I). It will really come down to whether Dean Barkley takes more votes away from Franken than Coleman or it is an even split. Prior=Coleman victory, latter=Franken victory. If either candidate finds their way above 43 percent, they will win. Barkley will take around 10-15% of the vote, with 12-13 being the target.
-Coleman should be considered the slight favorite.
Georgia- Another three way affair between incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) and challengers Jim Martin (D) and Allen Buckley (L). Racial voting at its strongest. African American turnout will be above the 2004 25%. If it is closer to 30% than 25%, Martin has a pretty good chance. If he can carry 30% of the white vote along with this, he'll have an excellent chance. BUT ALAS, neither candidate is likely to win the Senate seat on November 4th.
Georgia has a built in runoff system if no candidate receives more than 50%+1 of the vote on election day. It is likely that Buckley will pull out 3-7% of the vote and keep either of the two major candidates from winning. Runoffs tend to favor challengers... but a lower Black turnout must also be expected in a runoff.
-Chambliss should be considered the slight favorite.
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