Thursday, October 16, 2008



With the Democratic Party looking like a near lock to pick up the White House, the focus of many is now on earning 60 seats in the Senate. It is fairly easy to see how the Democrats get to 59 seats... Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, North Carolina, and Minnesota.. the Dems lead in the polling average in all of these states.

The question is where they get the 60th seat. The question is where the 60th seat comes... and while many Democrats have an infatuation with knocking off either Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky or Saxby Chambliss (who shamefully placed images of Max Cleland, triple amputee, with Osama Bin Laden in 2002), the best chance is in Mississippi.

In Mississippi, where the last poll was taken in September, Democrat and former governor Ronnie Musgrove is facing off Senator Roger Wicker. This is a special election-Wicker is a midterm filler for now departed Trent Lott. Musgrove is about as conservative as Democrats come... and I can barely tell the difference between the two of the candidates (both are white, in their fifties, and have white hair... and glasses, oh and they were also roommates at one point).

It is easy to see why the netroots are not crazy about Musgrove. That said, the Georgia Senate Race has been polled seven times since September 29th...

The one Mississippi poll taken since that date was taken by Rasmussen, the least favorable to Musgrove this election cycle, showing nine point leads for the incumbent when other firms showed 5 point leads. That poll had only a two point for Wicker.

Fivethirtyeight's regression analysis has Musgrove leading by about two points (Silver's overall projection has a Wicker win by about two points doing to the inclusion of polls that are over a month old).

Can somebody please poll Mississippi?

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