Tuesday, October 07, 2008

 

Moronic Real Clear Politics Polling Average Decision

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/use_of_partisan_affiliated_pol.html



"Starting October 11, and through the final weeks of Election 2008, RealClearPolitics will only be adding non-partisan affiliated polls to the RCP Poll Averages. Polls from PPP (D), Strategic Vision (R), along with any other partisan affiliated polls or pollsters that have been added before October 11 will remain in the RCP Averages until they are rolled out."

This has got to be one the dumbest things I have ever seen. Ever. Unlike, political campaigns' polls, both Strategic Vision and PPP release polling results regardless of the results. Even if it is bad news for their parties candidates.

It cannot be denied that at least Strategic Vision has had a partisan lean in the past. That said, by combining Strategic Vision and PPP, one should theoretically be able to balance or average out the leanings of each pollster.

Further, many non-partisan pollsters have leans built into them in any given election cycle. Rasmussen's weighting system could be argued to have a Republican lean because Obama is likely to bring new people to the polls. Ann Selzer's polls have a definite Democratic lean because of her belief that youth voters and African-Americans will vote in greater numbers than the polls indicate. Scott Rasmussen is known to be a conservative evangelical. John Zogby is a known liberal Democrat who ran for office.

The fact of the matter is that all pollsters have some sort of a "bias". But in the highly competitive world of political polls, partisanship gets pollster nowhere fast.

I have no reason to believe that PPP is less accurate than any other firm.

I think RCP is making a bone headed decision.... especially considering that their polling averages nailed all the senate races in 06 and all but Wisconsin in the 2004 Presidential election.

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