Saturday, October 04, 2008

 

The McCain Campaign believes they are at 260 electoral votes... are they really?

With McCain conceding Michigan, which I don't have to you is a major concession for a campaign on its way to a blowout defeat, his campaign claimed "[i]f we win FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH — all states Republicans have won for decades — that puts us at 260 electoral votes. We need to find 10 electoral votes from CO, NV, NM, NH, MN, WI and PA. Frankly, we have an easier map than Obama, He's on the defense."

So let us take a look at the numbers:
Florida... Obama holds a 3 point average lead according to the RCP average and McCain has only led in one poll over the past week. The state leans Democratic on fivethirtyeight.com with a 2.1% projected win for Obama.

Missouri... McCain holds a 1.7 point average lead according to the RCP average (with one poll from Rasmussen three weeks old) and McCain and Obama split the three polls taken over the past week with McCain leading by 1 and 2 and Obama leading by 1. Fivethirtyeight says the state is a tossup with McCain projected to win by .8

North Carolina... Obama holds a .5 point average lead according to the RCP average with the sudden inclusion of an ARG poll with Obama leading in two polls by 2 and 3 and McCain leading in one poll by 3 over the past week. Fivethirtyeight calls the state a tossup with a projection in flux (they mistakenly put in a poll that made the state more pro-Obama).. we'll call it about even.

Virginia.... Obama holds a 2.4 point average lead according to the RCP average with the sudden inclusion of an ARG poll with Obama by 3,6, and 9 in three and McCain by 3 in two of them over the past week. Fivethirtyeight calls the lean dem with a projection of 4.2 for Obama.

Indiana... McCain holds a 2.2 point average lead according to the RCP average with the two polls this week showing McCain by 3 and 1. Fivethirtyeight.com calls the a tossup with McCain projected to win by .4.

Ohio... Obama holds a 2 point average lead according to the RCP average with Obama leading in two polls by 2 and 8 and McCain leading in two polls by 1 over the past week. Fivethirtyeight projects Obama to win 2.1 and calls the state leans Democratic.

As for the other states which McCain claims to be competing in,
Obama leads by 4.4 in Colorado in the RCP average and projected by 5.4 on 538,
Obama leads by 1.8 in Nevada in the RCP average and projected by 1.9 on 538,
Obama leads by 7.8 in Iowa in the RCP average and projected by 11.7 on 538,
Obama leads by 5.6 in New Hampshire in the RCP average and projected by 4 on 538,
Obama leads by 5 in Minnesota in the RCP average and projected by 6.8 on 538,
Obama leads by 5 in Wisconsin in the RCP average and projected by 9.1 on 538,
Obama leads by 7.9 in Pennsylvania in the RCP average projected by 6.6 on 538

So what does all this mean? In the states that McCain claims to have in his pocket for the most part, he leads by very little in two of them, trails in three of them, and is trailing/tied in North Carolina.

In the states he claims to be competitive in he is trailing in all seven of them, by four or more in six of them, and by five or more in five of them.

Obama is gaining in all of these states. Obama has a better ground operation in all of these states. Palin has negative favorables in most of these states. The economy is the most important issue in all of these states and Obama leads on the economy in all of these states.

I gotta say... that the McCain camp can spin all they want, but at the end of the day, the only people they are spinning are themselves.

Comments:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan
 
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