Friday, September 19, 2008
Why I believe and have believed Barack Obama will win the election
Forgetting about the popular vote for a second. Let us talk about the states/district that Barack Obama will not lose (unless he admits to having three kids with Jamie Lynn Spears).
Washington (no this will not flip)
Oregon (neither will this)
New Mexico (I'm taking this off the board... the demographics are too good for Obama (Hispanics... going 2 to 1 for Obama))
Iowa (when has Obama been trailing in this state?)
New Jersey (yea... no)
Maine (yea maybe that one electoral vote from CD 2 might be an issue... I really doubt it though)
That gets you 202 electoral votes..... now the states that Obama hasn't trailed in the polling average all year
Minnesota (I know the polling average... few who follow politics enough believes this is going to flip unless McCain wins comfortably)
Wisconsin (Same with Minnesota)
That gets you to 222.
Now add the states where he hasn't trailed in the polling average since rapping up the Democratic Nomination:
Michigan (looking more Democratic by the day... Obama has trailed in only one poll since June 1st..... by one point)
Pennsylvania (I'll admit the polls has tightened... but Obama hasn't trailed in a single poll since April)
That gets you to 260 electoral votes. 9 more for a tie and 10 for a win.
The clearest path most would admit is through a New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)/Colorado (9 electoral votes) connection.
New Hampshire is more Democratic than four years ago... Jeanne Shaheen is practically a shoo-in to defeat John Sununu in the Senate race.
But I hesitate because of a lack of polling in the state... the polling there has been good for Obama.
Colorado doesn't suffer from a lack of polls problem. A growing Hispanic is what makes this state competitive.... The state has a Democratic governor, a majority of the Congressional membership is democratic, and soon enough the state should have two Democratic Senators (Udall is slight favorite in his race).
But perhaps more important, Obama holds a larger average lead in this state at the current moment than Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. Yes, it is somewhat do an outlier poll, but his advantage held through the Republican Convention. It is almost bunkered.
But what makes Obama chances so strong are his opportunities in many other states.
Take Nevada, a growing Hispanic population make this an opportunity for Obama (Bush only won there by 20,000 votes each time)
Virginia has growing northern suburbs that will deliver two Democratic Senators in three years and a Democratic Governor. The polls in both 05 and 06 broke late for the Democrat (Kaine and Webb). Obama actually led the polling average in this state earlier week... before two polls came in with McCain leading by high single digits (granted one of those polls had serious demographic issues...).
And then of course, you got Ohio... which McCain leads in the polling average... right now. I am not of the belief that this will be the ultimate swing state... but it offers another opportunity to Obama.
Then you got Indiana, which polls have tightened in the past few days (actually tighter than Ohio). Does anyone truly know what effect higher turnout among African-Americans in Indy will have? Or how about the 500,000 new registered voters (which can be more than 15% of the electorate)? Or finally, the fact that McCain has no regional offices in the state, while Obama has a ton.
And can someone tell Obama to spend some time and more resources in West Virginia? With few resources, Obama actually trailed by less than 5 in first two polls taken in months (granted, not the major polling firms). Imagine if he visited the state? Dems outnumber Republicans by a ton... a Democratic Governor, two Dem Senators, and 2/3's of the Congressmen?
And of course, Florida. But to me Obama only wins Florida, once he has captured other swing states to put him over 270.
But the fact of the matter is that Obama leads in enough states to win... and has opportunities in many more that offer unique demographic opportunities that make it possible win each individually while losing the others.
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