Monday, September 29, 2008
Obama Set to Rout McCain
Obama will secure victory because of the economy and his successful “get out the vote” effort. According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, he will win a large majority of the 45% of voters who list "worries about the economy" as their top concern. He will also be bolstered by the newly registered voters in key swing states, including over 500,000 in Indiana. Many of these voters belong to Obama’s core constituencies: those under the age of 29, African-Americans, and Hispanics. With these voters coming to the polls, turnout should reach its highest level since 1968 with 58% of all eligible voters casting ballots.
Aided by the record turnout, Obama will win nearly 68 million votes, more than any previous presidential candidate. He will be the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win a majority of the popular vote and become the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996 to win any southern states (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) or southwestern states other than New Mexico (Colorado and Nevada).
McCain should maintain most of his base in the South, Great Plains, and Mountain West due to the support of a majority of White voters and those over the age of 65. Unfortunately for McCain, Obama will win all other key demographic groups and regions on his way to a blowout victory.
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