Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Can you guess date I said this? AKA why the bubbly or moving threats are premature.
Now, all of this doesn't even touch on the closing of the state polling (the one that really matters). All major websites (pollster.com, RCP, and Fivethirtyeight.com) have showed Obama's lead in the electoral college dropping to below 50 and he below 300 electoral votes. In fact, it was for a short time in the past week McCain with the slight lead in the state by state polling. Although Obama has recovered to take a slight lead (mostly due to an Ann Selzer poll in Michigan on fivethirtyeight and a few polls out of Colorado on RCP), the race remains tight.
If I said it was yesterday, you might believe me. If I said it was today, you might believe me.
But you would be wrong.
I actually said this Monday August 25th, 2008. That's right that statement came on the first night of the Democratic National Convention. Before any convention or supposed "Palin" bounce.
It was in response to Keith Olbermann's* making fun of Joe Scarborough for saying that Republicans believed that John McCain had momentum and was closing.
So before all y'all start opening the bubbly or commiting seppuku, just remember that this race in the electoral college is pretty much where it was before the convention. At least in the important swing states.
See the past post:
*I would like to praise MSNBC. As you may or may not know, Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews (who is slowly making a comeback in my eye) were removed from anchoring MSNBC primetime election coverage. The two of the mixed like oil and water. Further, the two have such an obvious bent for Obama that it makes them literally non-credible with concern to analysis and controlling election night coverage. Thank God MSNBC removed the two of them from anchoring and placed David Gregory in charge. MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, post debate analysis will be credible once again. Maybe.
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