Monday, August 25, 2008
Keith Olbermann: Way Out of Line
In describing the feelings of McCain's camp, Scarborough said they felt like they dug themselves out of a hole with a shovel. Olbermann interrupted Scarborough to say "Jesus, Joe. Why don't you get a shovel?"
I'm not exactly sure whether Olbermann was telling him to just go away... or making some sort of bury with a shovel death joke.
Olbermann went on to talk about the only poll that shows Obama improving his position in the past month over McCain, the USATODAY/Gallup poll.
In fact, most of the trends have been in the other direction. See this fivethirtyeight.com diagram,
Or perhaps this Pollster.com diagram showing McCain's upturn (also showing a slight Obama upturn):
NBC News, LA Times, and CNN all show a tightening race. Other polls show the race static or bouncing up and down (Rasmussen/Gallup Tracking).
And the USA Today Gallup poll likely voter model is for a lack of a better word suspect. Nate Silver rips it in this fivethirtyeight.com gem, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/on-likely-voters-and-long-tail.html
The basic gist of the complaint is that it sets arbitrary cutoff points to determine likely voters.
Now, all of this doesn't even touch on the closing of the state polling (the one that really matters). All major websites (pollster.com, RCP, and Fivethirtyeight.com) have showed Obama's lead in the electoral college dropping to below 50 and he below 300 electoral votes. In fact, it was for a short time in the past week McCain with the slight lead in the state by state polling. Although Obama has recovered to take a slight lead (mostly due to an Ann Selzer poll in Michigan on fivethirtyeight and a few polls out of Colorado on RCP), the race remains tight.
The bottom line is that not only was Keith out of line with his comment, but he was also factually wrong.
See the video:
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