Tuesday, June 03, 2008


South Dakota- American Research Group against Fivethirtyeight

Okay here's the deal. The only pollster to poll Montana and South Dakota in the past week has been ARG. They say Clinton by 26 in South Dakota and Obama by 4 in Montana. Fivethirtyeight using regression says Obama by 5 in South Dakota and 18 in Montana.

Personally, I think ARG is on crack and needs to see a doctor immediately. Clinton's campaign says they will lose big in Montana and will lose by single digits in South Dakota.

If ARG is ever right.... well then I will issue a personal apology.... further, I would say Obama has got MAJOR, MAJOR problems. But it won't happen.... perhaps Clinton will win SD, but it will be more like a point or two than 26.... I don't even know where that number came from.

I mean look at the other primaries and caucuses around the region... Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota... in the caucuses in those states big Obama wins... in the primaries (which were beauty contests) close races. Nothing suggests based on demographics (of which fivethirtyeight is mostly based) that SD is any different.

Montana, I'll just let slide because at least ARG is saying Obama will win....

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