Monday, June 09, 2008

 

Okay, Nate Silver... I can't tell.....

You know you got a problem when you're an analyst... and people cannot tell the difference between your partisan opinion and "expert" opinion. I for one cannot tell whether Silver is hoping for Obama to cruise to a general election victory or he honestly in his "expert" opinion believes it will (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/best-move-of-general-election-season-so.html).

In this post, he moves from talking about a post-Hillary Obama bounce... to talking about a "bounce" that lasts throughout the campaign season. The fact of the matter is that a candidate who leads in June won't necessarily lead in November... even when the dynamics favor the candidate (see 1988 and Dukakis). Granted, this year is especially poison for the GOP (for God sake... they are talking about defending Saxby Chambliss seat in Georgia that has no business of being in play). Given, what I perceive to be a major jump.... with no statistical evidence to speak of..... I beg the question "can someone who is openly partisan operate a website that is not?"

The mainstream media's experts try to remain as non-partisan as possible (at least openly) for a reason. It is so that you believe its coverage is even handed and can be trusted.

I have no question of Silver's innate and mathematical abilities to predict elections. It has been proven... and his website (in its number form) remains a powerful tool. But I often wonder.... does this guy have the necessary skills to make a prediction about something that is five months down the line?

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