Friday, June 20, 2008


New Hampshire....

My adopted home state of New Hampshire is probably the first or second most powerful political state in the nation. Both it and Iowa hold the first contests in the nation during the primary season, and both are tossup states in the general election. They were two of the only three states to change sides between the 2000 and 2004 election (New Mexico was the other). It is a state with a ton of Independent voters (in 2004, Independents made up 44% of voters according to the exit polls). In 2004, Kerry carried these voters 56% to 42%... and thus the state by less than 10,000 votes. In 2000, Gore carried Independents by only a 47% to 43% margin... with Nader carrying 7%. Bush won New Hampshire by less than 7,000 votes and thus the election.

In 2006, New Hampshire saw its Democratic governor reelected by about 50%, both Republican congressmen outed, and the state legislature flipped from Republican to Democrat for the first time in a very long time. The state allows civil unions for same sex couples. A movement is abound to allow for a state and income tax (as opposed to property taxes now in place).

And now a new Rasmussen polls has Obama by 11% (, according to the poll "Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Obama leads McCain 50% to 35%." I don't have to tell you that number is probably a death knell if it held. He also picks off 18% of Republicans, which is double what Kerry picked up. Buoyed by what looks to be a successful attempt by Jeanne Shaheen to knock off Republican incumbent Senator John Sununu (every poll has her up), one must think that Obama looks golden.

Let me be the contrarian here.

John McCain is an extremely unique position to win in November. Why?

Well first, McCain has be running for Governor of New Hampshire since 2000. He used the state to jump start an insurgent campaign for President in 2000 (a state he won by 19% with the help of Independent voters). When he looked dead to right in 2008, he retreated to New Hampshire and won a contentious primary against Mitt Romney. The voters know him... and my guess is that their opinion about him are probably stable.

His favorables in the state are nearly equal to Obama's at around 60%. But, the poll offers more interesting information. By more than 2 to 1, Off-Shore drilling (or "deep sea oil exploration") is favored. By a plurality (40 to 30%), New Hampshire voters like free trade. This directly contradicts national numbers with 56% wanting a reworking of NAFTA. And 48% as compared to 30% of voters believe the national government should NOT nationalize the oil industry.

McCain's only chance to compete in the state is make these differences known. More than that, he has got to make Obama unacceptable.... as I mentioned before, I don't believe that McCain's favorables are going to move... but Obama's very well might (in fact his favorables have moved from survey to survey).

In other words, McCain should go negative.

He has got to pick up the a good 10% of Independent voters and make sure Obama does not and cannot pick off his base.

If he doesn't, he is dead in the state.

NH is on a death track.

The Democrats are ruining the state and Obama is an empty suit run by communists.

We will fight hard for our freedom no matter.

It will be the stupid sheep of this country who watch Oprah that destroy us.
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