Monday, June 16, 2008
If Obama wins state A, he will win state B and McCain same way
Here are some helpful standards to keep an eye on (based on demographics and poll data).....
If Obama wins North Carolina, it means he has won Virginia. Same for Georgia and Virginia.
If Obama has won Wisconsin, it means he has won Iowa (some might argue the reverse, but Obama looks much stronger in the latter than the former).
If Obama has won Nevada, it means he has won Nevada.
If Obama has won Arkansas (very small chance), it means has won Missouri (which itself is reliant on a win in Wisconsin).
If McCain manages to pull out one of Maine's congressional districts, it means he has won New Hampshire.
If McCain wins Pennsylvania, it means he has won Ohio (and thus the election).
If you notice, fewer McCain states are on the board.... you might take this as a sign that I think McCain has a lower chance at winning.... well he does, but that isn't the reasoning.
It's simply that at this point, it looks like Obama will be on the move in more states than McCain.
Further, the two most important states in this election... Michigan and Colorado are what I view independent of other states. In other words, I could see either candidate winning both Nevada and New Mexico and not Colorado. Further, I could see either candidate winning Ohio and not Michigan...
If I were to make an educated estimate.... Obama at this point would probably win with somewhere around 295 electoral votes... depending mostly on Michigan, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and New Hampshire being the biggest tossups.
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