Sunday, June 01, 2008

 

Do primary wounds heal?

I think we can all agree that this primary has NOT been the nastiest race any of us have ever seen. Its not the ugliest primary I have ever seen. For me, the honor goes to the 2001 NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary (Freddy Ferrer and Mark Green). All that said, I honestly don't know if the wounds from this primary will heal. Usually they do, but I gotta tell you there are some pissed off Clinton supporters. These are women and old folks.


I'm just going to post some numbers from the exit polls that were taken from states Pennsylvania and on.

Penn-
1/3 of Democratic primary voters would be unsatisfied if Obama was the nominee. Only 3% of primary electorate in Penn was Republican.

Indiana-
1/3 of Democratic primary voters would be unsatisfied if Obama was the nominee. 10% of the electorate in Indiana was Republican.

North Carolina-
3/10 of Democratic primary voters would be unsatisfied if Obama was the nominee. 5% of the primary electorate in NC was Republican.

West Virginia-
6/11 of Democratic primary voters would be unsatisfied if Obama was the nominee. 4% of the primary electorate in WV was Republican.

Kentucky-
6/11 of Democratic primary voters would be unsatisfied if Obama was the nominee. 6% of the electorate in Kentucky was Republican.

Oregon-
1/5 of Democratic primary voters would be unsatisfied if Obama was the nominee. 3% of the primary electorate in Oregon was Republican.

To give a little context-
Clinton won PA by 9%, IN by about 1.5%, WV by 40% and KY by 35%. Obama won NC by 14% and OR by 16%.

In southern/border states, Clinton voters are a lot less likely to go Obama's way than in northern states. Amount of Republicans in a contest seems to have little impact on the amount of voters not being satisfied with Obama.

Further:
A similar division was seen during the 2000 Republican primary between Bush and McCain. And I don't need to remind you who won in November... or at least won the Electoral College.... or at least won the votes that were counted in Florida.

That said, Bush has an extra two months to heal primary wounds.... and also led over Gore in pretty much every poll... both at this time and when the primary ended in early March. Obama's lead over McCain in national polls is averaged at less than a point. Further, Obama's lead in the electoral college is tenuous.

My point is that while its probable that we will see a rally around the leader... and Republicans are pretty unpopular right now... I don't think this election is anywhere near a slam dunk.

Obama will have to fight for every vote... but I wouldn't expect any different.

A note... I could be announcing later in the week that I will be working for a campaign...

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