Friday, June 27, 2008


An addition on why the LA Times poll is rubbish

As Frank Newport of Gallup points out "As is always the case, there are some slight differences in the way the polls are conducted. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll asks a "right direction/wrong direction" question before the ballot. Our Gallup Poll Daily tracking asks a registered voter screen before the ballot. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll includes the phrase "or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Our Gallup poll does not include this phrase. It is unclear how the order of these questions may affect the polling results."

And as Nate Silver points out

"That's a pretty big no-no in my book. Question order definitely matters -- the later you ask a question, the more it's going to be influenced by the implicit messaging triggered by previous questions. In this case, an overwhelming majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and most of them also associate that with the incumbent Republican administration. So it isn't surprising that a Republican presidential candidate performs worse if you ask about presidential preference immediately afterward, or that Republican party ID was lower in this survey."

Bottom Line:

The race is closer to 5 points.... Which speaks to either Obama's inability to be a "commander in chief" or McCain's strong brand....

My guess is that it is the prior (hopefully I will post on that as there is an excellent column by Charlie Cook which is how Obama could end blowing McCain out of the water....

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