Sunday, June 08, 2008

 

270 to Win....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/how_different_will_the_2008_wh.html

This article by Stu Rothenberg is pretty straight on.... I'll say Florida will not be a state to flip to Obama... and Wisconsin is not going to flip to McCain. The rest are fair... and in play.

His analysis on Obama winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college also seems pretty straight on.

Obama will probably win Iowa and Colorado... he would only be 2 electoral votes away if he held the Kerry states... he currently polls well in both of those states.... but he also trails in Michigan....


I think Obama can "blow out" McCain (Virginia, Ohio, and carrying the southwest besides Arizona...)....

But personally, if a candidate wins both Michigan and Colorado, I think that candidate will probably win the whole thing...

More to come later.

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