Saturday, May 03, 2008
Let's be honest... Clinton needs a game changer to win and won't get it... most likely
But in the end, Clinton really needs a NC and/or Oregon victory. NC has so many Black voters (39.3% in early voting) that in order to win the state she really needs 70% of white voters. Now, if she ever got that, there really is a case to be made that Obama won't carry white working class voters in the general (an argument that I thought was put aside in Wisconsin in February... but has crept back up). The problem is that getting 70% of white voters is so difficult.
Oregon is mostly white voters.... so what would an Oregon victory prove? Look to the theory in the top paragraph.... its a state where white voters don't live near black voters. Its really the other side of the equation of NC. Its also a state that Clintonites would describe as elitists wine drinkers... whatever the hell that means.
In the end, she needs at least one of those states to have a real shot.... and probably both.
She won't get it.
And that is why Barack Obama will probably be the nominee.
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