Saturday, May 03, 2008


Let's be honest... Clinton needs a game changer to win and won't get it... most likely

Clinton will win Indiana. The problem is that is not a game changer. Its a state with 89% white voters..... who are rural. The state was close because of the Chicago media market... and the "white voters who live near black voters vote for the white candidate, while the white voters who don't live near black voters vote for the black candidate" (this theory does a pretty good job at explaining a lot of Clinton and Obama victories... even if it is simplistic and very worrisome). If Obama wins Indiana (and wins NC), its good night Clinton.

But in the end, Clinton really needs a NC and/or Oregon victory. NC has so many Black voters (39.3% in early voting) that in order to win the state she really needs 70% of white voters. Now, if she ever got that, there really is a case to be made that Obama won't carry white working class voters in the general (an argument that I thought was put aside in Wisconsin in February... but has crept back up). The problem is that getting 70% of white voters is so difficult.

Oregon is mostly white voters.... so what would an Oregon victory prove? Look to the theory in the top paragraph.... its a state where white voters don't live near black voters. Its really the other side of the equation of NC. Its also a state that Clintonites would describe as elitists wine drinkers... whatever the hell that means.

In the end, she needs at least one of those states to have a real shot.... and probably both.

She won't get it.

And that is why Barack Obama will probably be the nominee.

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