Friday, May 02, 2008

 

Just for fun on the popular vote

I was trying to figure some plausible scenario where Clinton could win the popular vote when Florida and Michigan were excluded.

I used current poll numbers... and clearly had to go in some cases to give Clinton a margin she probably doesn't deserve.

I gave her a 10 point victory in Indiana (its possible).

Gave a tie in North Carolina (probably won't happen).

Gave her WV and Kentucky by 30 (possible).

Gave her Oregon by 5 (a poll out tonight had her down by 6.... so she has some making up to do)

Gave her Puerto Rico by 25 (that's what Jay Cost had as the baseline).

Gave Obama Montana and South Dakota by 10.

If such a wild scenario occurred.... and we use the Washington Primary and not the caucus....

Clinton would win the estimated popular vote by 56 votes. 56.

But it'll never happen.

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