Wednesday, May 21, 2008


It's a mystery... general election national vs. state polling

For a Democrat to win the electoral college, he/she (leaning towards the former) needs to probably carry the popular vote by a point or two.... in other words, the way the vote is spread out, Democrats need a larger amount of the popular vote to be assured of election than do Republicans.

But the numbers coming out of these states are still somewhat surprising... Obama leads McCain nationally by 4 points.... he would actually lose if an election were held today. He holds all the Gore states, wins Nevada and Colorado... but loses in Ohio AND New Hampshire. Clinton leads McCain nationally by 2 points.... but she would actually win if an election were held today. Her map is actually the one that looks MUCH different than past Democrats. She would win the Gore states minus Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. BUT she would win, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Missouri.....

A few interesting notes.... first, this will most certainly change once Obama wins the nomination.... a rallying behind the leader will occur. Two, its interesting to see how the popular vote doesn't always predict the winner. Three, I think this is the most interesting point.... Obama has always been the one believed to compete in new states... he might lose a few normally Democratic states but make it up with some winning combo (it always involved the west like what he is doing here), but it also involved a Virginia, North Carolina, Mississippi, or a Georgia (save that state for Libertarian Bob Barr is on the ballot and might make some hay). None of those latter states have panned out. Clinton, on the other hand, was supposed to hold the Gore/Kerry states then add Ohio and Florida and be the winner... yes, she wins those (kinda like Obama wins in the west), but she also loses Wisconsin and Michigan... granted those have been tight the past elections. Not shockingly, she wins Arkansas... but she also picks off West Virginia and Missouri (and Attorney General Jay Nixon is running for Governor and will win convincingly).

And what the devil is going on in New Hampshire? Both Obama (who I'm told is supposed to be the stronger candidate in the state) and Clinton trail McCain.... though the past couple of polls actually have Clinton running stronger than Obama... I thought this state was trending Democratic... Shaheen is a shoo-in for Senate in November...

I don't get it.

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