Monday, May 05, 2008


Final Predictions Indiana and North Carolina

Let's start with Indiana. I don't see a close race. To me, it just feels like a movie script we've seen before. Obama behind Clinton who leads in the polling average. Clinton near 50%. A lot of so-called "undecideds".

Call it Clinton 54-46.

North Carolina is more interesting. Its a mix between of South Carolina and Virginia. Both of these states went to Obama by 20+ points... in fact it was closer to 30.

The problem with using these states to predict is that while they are similar, they are also different (South Carolina is more Black than North Carolina and Virginia is wealthier than North Carolina).

Early voting was somewhere near 2/5 Black in NC. Obama won early voting in Texas but lost the primary. What that means is that Obama tends to do very well among early voters (his voters are more energetic).

Here's my thinking:
The Black vote will be around 35% of the total electorate. Obama will carry the Black vote 9 to 1. Clinton will carry the white vote by about 13 to 7.

What you get is Obama by 7 points... 53.5-46.5.

Take these numbers for what they are.

I feel much more strongly about Indiana..... I see some people going blowout in North Carolina for Obama. I just don't see it.... then again I don't see a lot of things.

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