Thursday, May 01, 2008

 

And now for another poll(s) I don't believe

From Zogby:
In North Carolina, Obama dominates all age groups with one exception--those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied.

Democrats--North Carolina
4-30/5-1

Clinton
34%

Obama
50%

Someone else
8%

Not sure
8%

Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina--47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well--winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing.

Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.

In Indiana, the two Democrats were deadlocked at 42% each, with 16% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.

Democrats--Indiana
4-30/5-1

Clinton
42%

Obama
42%

Someone else
7%

Not sure
9%

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Why don't I believe these... simply put... Indiana is easy. It goes against all other recent polling (and I mean it goes against anything that has come out post Wright). Even if you ignore Obama being tied with Clinton, the mere fact that 16% are undecided or are voting for someone else makes you think the poll is a little nutzo considering there are four days to vote. 10% of the electorate maybe, but 16%?

As for NC, I refuse to believe that Clinton is carrying less than 50% of the white vote... most polls that have come out in the past two days have it above 60%. And if Obama is carrying 37% of the white vote and still only at 50%... then that means that there are a lot of Black voters he isn't carrying (27%)... which is of course also wrong.

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The real thing to watch in this is whether Clinton gets 70% of the white vote (I think she falls short by around 6 or 7%).. which leads to an Obama victory of around 6% in the end...

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