Monday, May 05, 2008


And in Georgia and Alabama... does the theory hold?

Back to the theory that the Black vote was underestimated in southern primaries...

Well unfortunately, there is only limited data available in Georgia.... but the two sources available were Zogby and Insider Advantage... both of whom predicted around 20 percent victories for Obama in Georgia (the final result was 35). Well it turns out Zogby had the percentage of African Americans about right (he says around half, it was 51). He underestimated Obama's Black support by 20%.... oops.

Insider Advantage breaks the theory! They had Black turnout at 43 and white at 49.. the numbers were reversed on election day. They actually nailed the white vote (that is who whites would vote for)... they underestimated the Black vote by 15%.

So to me, the theory is actually broken again... but maybe you believe differently.

Now, Alabama... I remember the polls being much closer than the actual result.

And, here the theory holds. SurveyUSA said Black voters would make up 42% of the electorate... it was 51%. They also underestimated Obama's vote among Black voters... they overestimated among whites.

And the same story holds in Insider Advantage.

In Mississippi, Insider Advantage overestimated the African-American vote by 7%. But all the undecideds among Blacks went to Obama, and they overestimated Clinton's Black vote by 8. And American research group suffered from the same exact problem.

Both had predicted 16-17% victories for Obama.... when it was closer to 25.

In MS, the theory clearly doesn't hold.

So we got 3 to 1 (or 2 1/2 to 1 1/2). The bottom line is that the polling companies have not on average overestimated Black support and only did so really in Alabama. They overestimated it in Mississippi....

The theory that Obama does better than polls suggest because polling companies underestimate the Black vote is hereby debunked.

What does that mean for tomorrow? Obama isn't getting 40% turnout... Personally, I went 35%, but I wouldn't be shocked with 32% African-American turnout.

I'll be floored if Clinton doesn't make it into the lower-mid 60's of the white vote. I have to think she does better in NC than PA among white voters. VA was a fluke...
Obama will win the Black vote 9 to 1, which is where his strength comes from.

But in the end, she needs 70% of the white vote to win the state, and she won't do it.

But I see single digits in the forecast.... we'll see if that turns out to be right.

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