Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Mets, NC, IN, and PA
NC: I have been surprised with the polls showing Obama with 15+ leads. I"m not one to go against polls, and I won't. The current lead for Obama is 12 in the average. The good thing for Clinton is that there is still more than a month until voting gets underway. I expect her to close the gap...
IN: We finally have a poll in from Indiana and its amazingly optimistic for Clinton from my opinion. She leads by 11 points... this is from a polling outfit that has her up by 12 point in Pennsylvania. Indiana is a must win for her to stay in the race past May 6th. This is opposed to NC, which is a state she needs to win in order to have a legitimate chance at winning the state. Michael Barone in US News notes that many people have been overplaying the "Indiana is in the Chicago media market" card. This seems to fit well with Clinton's 12 point lead. Further, white rural voters in the midwest seem to fit in well with Clinton's base.
PA: Obama is closing the gap... I guess being up 3:1 in media buys will do this. Further, he couldn't have slid further in the polls. He also has Senator Bob Casey on his side. Clinton's lead is still probably just north of 10 points. She cannot afford a 5 point win in the state. She must win by 10+ points in order to remain competitive in the nation wide popular vote. And if Obama does pull of an upset... she should drop out.
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