Monday, April 28, 2008


It's time for another edition of... making a call on a race a week out (North Carolina edition)

Well, last time I said about a week out that Clinton would beat Obama by 10+ in the state. In the upcoming weekend, I adjusted it to 8-11 and said it would be 10. It ended up being around 9.2% (which looked like three on the tv 54.6-44.4). The main point of my prediction was to say that the polls showing a 5-6 point race were too close. I was right, even if my 10+ call was not (it was close). Now, I look at North Carolina. The state favors Obama with 33% of the electorate being African-American. If he wins that section of the population by a margin of 9 to 1, he's already 60% of his way to 50%. Now, this is where things get interesting. If Obama wins 35% of the white vote, he will win the state. In Pennsylvania, Obama won 37% of the white vote. In Virginia... a long, long time ago, but a state that shares some characteristics with NC, he won 52% of the vote. That will never happen. The guess on this end is that Obama wins between 30-40% of the white vote. My belief is that its closer to the upper end of that range. If I was guessing right now, I'd say Obama by 6-8 points in the state...

North Carolina has got major cities (Raleigh, Charlotte)... the middle and eastern part of the state are more friendly to Obama, but Clinton has got a real base in Ashville on west in the mountains... its the Appalachia vote.

I'll update when/if necessary.

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