Wednesday, April 02, 2008

 

Is Obama really unelectable?

The short answer is an obvious no. The drudge report links to an abc news blog post http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/04/candidate-clint.html where Clinton is making the claim that Obama can't win in a general election match up against McCain. That doesn't mean that Obama will win against McCain. In fact, the current slate of polls say he won't. But polls aren't everything. In the end, Obama needs 270 to win.

Let's take a look at the states that I would deem very likely to be won by Obama in November.

Maine (4 electoral votes)
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
New York (31 electoral votes)
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
DC (3 electoral votes)
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
California (55 electoral votes)
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)

That is 159 electoral votes for Obama... pretty good base.

Let's add the states that are likely to go Obama.
Massachusetts (12 electoral votes)
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Delaware (3 electoral votes)

That is 192 electoral votes for Obama.

Now let's add the states that I consider to be leaning towards Obama.

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Nevada (5 electoral votes)

That gets Obama to 225 votes.

That leaves the following states that I believe to be tossups:
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Virginia (13 electoral votes)

If the election were to be held today, Obama would probably win NJ and MI with PA being the truest of tossups.

In other words, PA would put Obama over the top (or could be his downfall).

Hardly unelectable..... but I think we can also put to rest the Obama claim that he would expand the electoral map.

Create your own electoral map:
http://www.270towin.com/

See the polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ (a pretty awesome website that assigns a mathematical formula based upon what they believe are the more accurate polls... sometimes leaves something to be desired, but it is still pretty cool).


http://pollster.com/

The polls and some great commentary.

Comments: Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]





<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]