Thursday, April 24, 2008

 

Indiana determines whether June comes... NC is a better predictor of who wins the nomination

The narrative is set. Two polls have come out in the past 24 hours that have Barack Obama with a 1 and 3 point lead in Indiana. The poll that has him up 3 has undecided with 21 points. Most agree that the state is equal footing for the two candidates. The state has the chicago media market, but it also has a lot of white rural voters. An Obama in the state would probably lock the nomination up for him (HOW MANY TIMES HAVE WE HEARD THAT ONE!). A Clinton win... especially one by 5+ points would without a doubt give more credence to Clinton's argument that Obama would be a lame duck in the general election. Yet, Clinton won't make it anywhere at the end of the primary season if she loses in North Carolina by 10+ points. Her argument on popular vote (including Florida and Michigan or not) and any slim chance at winning the pledged delegate count (only if Michigan and Florida are included) are only possible if she holds Obama down in NC. There is going to be a significant vote total coming out of NC... larger than that coming out of Indiana. Yes Clinton won't gain immediate big headlines for losing NC by 6 points... but she will win the long term headlines if she wins the nomination. Of course the chances of that are very, very small.

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