Monday, April 21, 2008

 

A final look at PA

So on the eve of what could be the end of the Hillary Clinton campaign if she loses, the big question in most minds is how much will she win buy. There is one polling company Public Polling Policy that has Obama up... Its also the only polling firm that has him above 45%... and that is what I believe is so troubling for him. Not one poll has him above 49%. It spells doom to me. The real question in many minds is whether the undecideds show up. If they do, most believe they go Clinton. There are three polls that have Clinton at 10+ points.... they are all bloody awful. My favorite poll, Surveyusa has Clinton at 50 but Obama at 44. 6% undecideds is a lot. If Clinton takes the lot, she'll win by the 10+ I speak of. If there is a huge turnout in Philly and the surrounding suburbs, Obama will have done his job. We should know by the beginning of the night if Obama did his job because eastern PA usually reports first (where Obama has to be strong).

There are a lot of mixed signals come out of PA.

Most of the signs show Clinton.... and undecideds should go her way. If they do 8-11 points should be her victory.

As for delegates, I'm not a master at that art yet. But it should be in the area of 12-20... not a game changer.

If we wake on Wednesday with Clinton by 10+, Obama won't be in trouble because Clinton will pull off something that she wasn't capable.... but will be in trouble because its yet another large state he failed in (and like Ohio where his general numbers are not great).

If Clinton win is less than 5, I would say to her get out of the race...

If its an Obama win, she will leave.

If its between 5-10.... that is VERY fuzzy territory.

My call is the 8-11.. With my belief that it will be 10.


We'll see.

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