Saturday, April 12, 2008
Carter and Gore to get Clinton out of the race?
According to this article yes... Yes.
Some key quotes:
"Yet some in the Democratic elite are wary of moving too soon. Polls show that 30% of Clinton's supporters would vote for McCain if she fails to become the nominee. To close off Clinton's bid before millions have had the chance to vote risks causing the very split that officials are desperate to avoid."
I agree 100% on this one. I've pointed it out before. Asking Clinton to get out doesn't just upset Clinton it upsets her supporters. In my own experience, there are plenty of Clinton supporters than not only think Clinton will win, but that if Obama wins, they will go to McCain faster than you can say choo choo. I'd dare say the 30% total is low (a little lying to the pollsters going on?). There is a reason that polling from even New York shows the race close. The article fails to mention that a near equal of Democrats think Obama should leave than Clinton (its 26 vs 33 according to Rasmussen).
"But a loss to Obama, or even a single-digit victory, in Pennsylvania will seal Clinton's fate. Pennsylvania is the last big state left in the race, and the last chance for Clinton to claw back Obama's delegate lead. "If he (Obama] wins (Pennsylvania] flat out, I think the big foot will come down," a source said.
Anything less than a resounding victory by her will probably see the race choked off ahead of the final primaries on June 3. "
She must win PA by double digits... I don't disagree, except if Obama goes up in the polls and then she comes back and wins. I don't believe that will happen. My prediction is Clinton by 10+. If she loses the state, she should drop out. She has no reason to stay in... all her reasons have holes (big states, momentum, etc.). She's never going to erase the delegate lead... anyone think that will happen is crazy. She will tighten the lead, but she cannot overtake him.
But I think the article misses the biggest point of all: North Carolina. An Obama win by 20+ points will end Clinton's bid. Indiana is no tie breaker. Besides, the point that an Obama win by this margin will erase any delegate gains from Pennsylvania, it will fight back against charges that the Wright charges have damaged him in a state he should have won. Further, it adds to his electability argument (a poll from NC had him tied! with McCain). And finally, it will make his strangle hold on most of the south final. Did I forget to mention that there will be a senate race in NC this year where incumbent Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable?
At the same time, a Clinton win in that state.... and this race just jumped to another dimension.
As for Indiana, she must win that as well. Its a must win for Clinton. I expect that if she wins PA by double digits, she will win Indiana.
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