Wednesday, April 09, 2008

 

Barring a meltdown in the debate... Clinton will win PA by 10+

Risky you might say. The polling average has her up by 6.7, so maybe not as much as you think. Let's look at some other statistics. One only one current poll has her up by more than 6 (SurveyUSA who has her up by 18). SurveyUSA was the only poll that correctly got the numbers correct in the state that most directly associate with penn... Ohio. There is no doubt that Obama has closed the gap in pennsylvania.. in fact, Obama has cut the lead in the average by some 10 at its peak. The question now is where does that lead for Clinton go... up, down, stay stable. There are signs that it is stable. Rasmussen polling is equal to what it was a week ago.. ppp is more in favor of Clinton, so is SurveyUSA... Quinnipiac and Strategic vision have all gone more Obama. The reason? I actually thinks its pretty simple... Obama has outspent Clinton 3 or 4 to 1 in PA. He's driven his favorable ratings up.. while Clinton's have taken somewhat of a hit. The problem of course is that if someone is a hardcore supporter of Clinton, no matter how many ads you put on the air, you can't get him or her to change their support. The state is simply too favorable, imho, for Obama to continue to make hard in roads.... Although, I completely disagree with the way he said it, there are going to be voters in central PA who aren't going to vote for Obama no matter what he does. His only chance is to run up the score in philly... the problem for him is that he won't be able to do as well in pitt as he might normally... and of course, Nutter and Brady (mayor and head of the philly democrats) are behind Clinton. There also seems to be some drivers remorse that tends to happen when Obama is about to finish Clinton off... we saw it in NH, we saw it in Ohio and Texas. My guess is we'll see it again. I expect Clinton's number to rebound in the next couple of weeks. If Obama wins this thing, I'll look like an idiot, but I just don't see him winning PA. Further, take a look at this from Jay Cost http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/03/a_review_of_the_pennsylvania_p.html the point is that this race will go on to NC, where Obama will probably crush the hopes of Clinton... but we'll see.

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