Saturday, March 29, 2008


Clinton and North Carolina

I will not budge from my belief that Senator Clinton needs to win the North Carolina primary to have a legitimate shot at wooing super delegates. Therefore, it should be disheartening news for Clinton that the recent polling out of North Carolina looks gosh darn awful for her. She trails by 15+ in the last two polls. Obama is going to carry the Black vote by an overwhelming majority (9 to 1?). Clinton needs to carry the white vote by 25+ points (Zach Blatt would have a much better breakdown of that). She is currently only leading 14 points in the latest IA poll.

About the only good news for Clinton is that the primary is over a month away.... and a lot of stuff can happen....

Because if she doesn't win NC, she will lose the nomination (unless something 1 out of a billion happens). The reason is simple. We know that Obama has for all intents and purposes locked up the pledged delegates (unless the delegates from FL and MI are seated.... which won't happen). He has pretty locked up the popular vote unless there is a re-vote for FL and MI. Thus, her only real argument for winning the nomination is that Obama base is leaving him... and is unelectable in the general election. She needs an upset in a state deemed Obama country. North Carolina is that state. Sure, there is also Oregon, but in this person's opinion it is a more uphill climb because its voters tend to be more educated and are less likely to leave Obama in droves.

I should point out like I always do that Obama would still my favorite to win the nomination even if Clinton did win NC... his chances would just stand at something like 7 to 3... instead of 9 to 1.

Comments: Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]